Nationally Determined Contributions under Paris Agreement must reflect growing business case and global momentum for renewables
Countries have an opportunity to significantly increase renewable energy ambition within Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and to accelerate its deployment in line with climate objectives under the Paris Agreement, per a new report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).
Released today at the UN Climate Change Conference in Bonn, Germany, the report found that current NDCs and energy strategies can be substantially enhanced to meet global climate objectives. Entitled ‘Untapped Potential for Climate Action: Renewable Energy in Nationally Determined Contributions’, the report also identifies that renewable energy already targeted within national energy strategies often exceeds renewable energy capacity currently envisaged under NDCs.
Renewable energy deployment levels under current NDCs would bring online 80GW of renewable energy capacity globally each year, between 2015 – 2030. However, the current pace of deployment has seen countries install 125GW of new renewable energy capacity on average annually between 2010 and 2016, suggesting that NDCs can better reflect the global energy transition. The report highlights that a more integrated approach would send a clearer message to the global investment community willing to invest in this sector.
“The case for renewable energy has strengthened considerably since parties first quantified the renewable energy components of their nationally determined contributions,” said Adnan Z. Amin, IRENA Director-General at a press conference for the Global Climate Action energy, water and agriculture thematic segment. “Since then, the increasing attractiveness of renewables as the lowest-cost source of new energy supply in countries around the world has fuelled unprecedented levels of deployment.
“As the global community prepares for a new round of climate negotiations under the Paris Agreement, it is critical we go in with a clear understanding of the trajectory required to avoid the worst effects of climate change,” continued Mr. Amin. “Our analysis finds that the convergence of innovation, falling costs and positive socioeconomic impacts of renewable energy – together with the climate imperative – make a compelling case for accelerating action.”
As part of a mechanism built into the Paris Agreement, countries are required to update or submit new NDCs over time, each of which is designed to be progressively more ambitious than the last. With the second round of NDCs due in 2020, a ‘Facilitative Dialogue’ is set to start in 2018, during which Parties will take stock of initial progress toward the collective goals in the Agreement.
Furthermore, while the power sector emissions are addressed in most NDCs, significant carbon reductions in end uses of energy (mobility, heating and cooling) are needed to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement. The use of renewable energy in other sectors of the economy such as transport, industry and residential buildings can also support increased ambition.
IRENA also used the platform of the UN Climate Change Conference to announce the establishment of a new facility focused on providing strategic planning and technical support to countries to raise achievable renewable energy ambitions under their NDCs.
“Given the gap we have found that exists between what countries are pledging to do under the Paris Agreement and actual progress and potential on the ground, it is clear that there is an opportunity to work with countries in a targeted fashion to ramp up both implementation and ambition,” added Mr. Amin.
Key findings of the report, are:
- Substantial scope exists for countries to increase their renewable energy ambitions in a cost-effective way under NDCs.
- In Africa, NDCs could cost-effectively target 310 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy by 2030, almost four and a half times the capacity outlined currently in NDCs on the continent and more than twice the capacity envisaged in NDCs and national plans.
- Only ten G20 countries currently include quantified renewable energy targets in their NDCs, while all of them have set targets as part of their national energy plans and strategies.
- NDCs of G20 countries – responsible for 80 per cent of the global energy-related CO2 emission reductions needed by 2050 – could aim for an installed renewable energy capacity of 4.6 terrawatts (TW) by 2030, 60 per cent more than would be achieved though the combined implementation of national energy targets and current NDCs.
- Greater alignment of renewable energy targets under NDCs and in national energy plans would facilitate the mobilisation of the investments required to accelerate the energy transition and advance progress towards achieving global climate objectives.
- Achieving power sector renewable energy targets under current NDCs, requires almost USD 1.7 trillion by 2030 – USD 1.2 trillion of which is required for unconditional targets, and USD 500 billion will be needed to support targets conditional upon international support.