· 2021 production guidance of 5,620 – 5,920 boe/d is 1-6% lower than 2020 production, excluding the assets divested in 2020 due to expected production downtime from the planned Central Processing Facility (‘CPF’) maintenance deferred from 2020, together with compression installation and well workovers. This is partially offset by the incremental contribution of 100% of the working interest production from the recently connected SD-12X well. At West Gharib, development drilling is expected to slow natural decline and in Morocco production volumes are expected to increase as recovery from the 2020 COVID-19 close downs continues.
· An analysis of 2021 production guidance by asset is as follows:
o South Disouq: Production guidance for 2021 reflects planned 2-3% CPF downtime due to planned maintenance, the installation of an inlet compressor and several well workovers, none of which occurred in 2020. Where possible, these activities will be synchronised to minimise their impact. The Company’s share of gross production will increase due to its 100% working interest in the SD-12X well, which started up ahead of schedule in December 2020.
o West Gharib: Production is expected to decline naturally during H1’21 until the planned three to four well campaign commences. Thereafter, the production decline is expected to be arrested, with further development wells planned for 2022 and 2023 with a view to growing production to approximately 3,000 bbl/d.
o Morocco: Production guidance is 8-12% higher than 2020 production and reflects a sustained return to normal levels of consumption across the customer base, following COVID shutdowns which impacted 2020 production, together with a full year’s contribution from an existing customer’s second factory, which came online in December 2020.
o COVID-19: The 2021 production guidance presented assumes no significant production curtailments due to COVID-19. Should there be COVID-19 related disruptions, then production guidance may be revised.
Expected activities in the year 2021
o South Disouq: One development well, Ibn Yunus-2X, and one exploration well, Hanut-1X, will be drilled consecutively, commencing in Q2 2021. The IY-2X well will access the western compartment of the Ibn Yunus field and is expected to be completed and tied back rapidly once drilled. The Hanut-1X well is targeting unrisked mean recoverable volumes of 139bcf with a 33% chance of success. The Company’s partner has confirmed that it will participate in both wells. An inlet compressor will be installed at the CPF site to maximise recovery from the fields, and several well workovers are also planned. Once the exploration concession extension that includes the Hanut and Mohsen prospects has been ratified by Parliament, the Company will pay its share of signature and training bonuses.
o West Gharib: At least three infill development wells will be drilled with a fourth contingent upon field performance and the macroeconomic environment. One water injection well will be drilled, and additional facilities to support this project will be installed. Given the recent low oil price environment, only one development well was drilled in 2020
o Morocco: Four or five wells will be drilled in two campaigns in Q2 and Q4 2021. As the drilling rig is stacked in the Company’s yard in Morocco, there will be no significant mobilisation cost and in addition splitting the campaign into two allocates the capital investment over approximately eight months which allows the cost of these wells to be comfortably covered by cash generated in that period. Four wells will target shallow biogenic gas that can be tied into the Company’s infrastructure quickly and at low cost. Furthermore, one of these wells will be deepened to test the Top Nappe prospectivity in the Company’s core production area. If the first Top Nappe test is successful, then a second well may also be deepened. On the assumption that the rig continues to be available after the drilling of the four firm wells, a fifth contingent well would target an additional prospect in the BMK area, which was derisked by the BMK-1 well in 2020. A workover programme of up to nine wells will also be conducted, including re-perforation and sliding sleeve operations to exploit behind-pipe reserves and maximise production and recovery from the existing well stock.