{"id":4175,"date":"2015-12-11T10:15:12","date_gmt":"2015-12-11T10:15:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/?p=4175"},"modified":"2017-01-26T10:58:24","modified_gmt":"2017-01-26T10:58:24","slug":"2016-oil-and-gas-industry-outlook-deloitte","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/index.php\/2016-oil-and-gas-industry-outlook-deloitte\/","title":{"rendered":"2016 Oil and Gas industry Outlook \u2013 Deloitte"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;As 2015 comes to a close, I am struck by what a unique year this was in the always-fascinating and dynamic world of oil and gas. 2014 was a year marked by a price shock that rapidly brought us from our \u201cnew normal\u201d (or so we thought) of $90-$100\/barrel to prices around $60\/barrel by the end of the year,&#8221; says\u00a0John England, US Oil &amp; Gas leader, Deloitte LLP in the latest\u00a02016 Oil and Gas industry Outlook.<\/p>\n<p>In 2015, oil prices continued to trend lower, getting down to the $40-50\/barrel range since mid-summer and dipping below $40\/barrel in December. In less than a year, upstream oil and gas companies faced 50 percent drop in revenues.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The industry responded by experiencing the five stages of grief:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Denial<\/strong>: \u201cThis is just a blip and won\u2019t last long\u201d (this view died by March)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Anger<\/strong>: \u201cIt\u2019s OPEC\u2019s fault\u201d (for producing as much as they can\u2026a lot like US producers)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Bargaining<\/strong>: \u201cIf only we had invested for returns, not growth, for the past five years\u201d<\/li>\n<li><strong>Depression<\/strong>: \u201cCash flows continue to diminish, and balance sheets continue to weaken\u201d<\/li>\n<li><strong>Acceptance<\/strong>: \u201cI guess we\u2019d better prepare to ride this out for as long as it takes\u201d (current view of most players)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>For the most part, 2015 saw the exploration and production sector of the industry pull out the 1980\u2019s playbook for a severe price decline:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Cut capital expenditures and defer major capital projects<\/li>\n<li>Cut operating expenditures and headcount<\/li>\n<li>Push suppliers for better pricing<\/li>\n<li>Hope for better prices<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&#8220;The first three have been quite effective at reducing costs and preserving cash. The fourth one is still in progress, and although I often hear \u201chope is not a strategy,\u201d it sure beats \u201cno hope,\u201d at least when it comes to morale,&#8221; adds John England.<\/p>\n<p><strong>We do see some positive development that should get us to a better place from a pricing perspective:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Demand<\/strong>: US demand is responding to lower oil prices in the usual let\u2019s-go-buy-a-new-car, or better yet, a-massive-SUV kind of way. As auto sales go up, expect to see increased US demand. More broadly, Asian demand, beyond just China is showing strong growth. China itself, despite the stock market jitters of the summer, remains a huge source of global demand and China\u2019s move to allow two children per family, rather than one, promises to double the numbers of drivers (and thus, fuel buyers) at some point in the future. (Let\u2019s just say I used very rough math on this prediction).<\/li>\n<li><strong>Decline<\/strong>: Why is decline in the hope section? Because natural reservoir production decline, which has historically been four to five percent globally, means that even without demand growth, the oil and gas industry must produce another four million barrels per day every year just to keep up with current demand. This naturally puts upward pressure on pricing.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Production<\/strong>: As noted above, total US production finally started to decline and that trend is expected to continue in 2016. More broadly, billions of dollars of investments have been deferred due to the low price environment, which translates to millions of barrels that will not be produced in the years to come. This sets the stage for a price rally.<\/li>\n<li><strong>A leaner, stronger industry<\/strong>: More than anything else in business, I believe in the power of free markets. Just as I believe the high prices of natural gas were a critical impetus for the development of the shale gas revolution, I believe today\u2019s low crude prices are forcing an equally powerful innovation in the way oil is being developed and produced. Price forces innovation and I believe we are still in the early stages of what can be achieved in terms of reducing unit costs of oil production and ultimately increasing unit margin and achieving higher return on capital employed. The endgame is an oil and gas industry that will be stronger, leaner, and built to last.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;As 2015 comes to a close, I am struck by what a unique year this was in the always-fascinating and dynamic world of oil and gas. 2014 was a year &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/index.php\/2016-oil-and-gas-industry-outlook-deloitte\/\" class=\"more-link\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":4176,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[11],"tags":[3842,454,581,1827,1844,1920,1943,3843,3844,2602],"class_list":["post-4175","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-top-news","tag-3842","tag-china","tag-demand","tag-oil","tag-oil-and-gas-industry","tag-opec","tag-outlook","tag-price","tag-supply","tag-u-s","entry"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/oil-price.jpg?fit=259%2C194&ssl=1","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p5JWkQ-15l","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":2427,"url":"https:\/\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/index.php\/east-african-countries-could-lose-out-on-low-oil-prices-deloitte\/","url_meta":{"origin":4175,"position":0},"title":"East African countries could lose out on low oil prices &#8211; Deloitte","author":"Samuel Kamau Mbote","date":"February 9, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"East African countries are unlikely to significantly benefit from falling global oil prices due to inadequate storage facilities, a new research paper released by Deloitte East Africa has indicated. \u201cEast African countries\u2019 failure to set up sufficient oil storage facilities will mean that the region could miss out on a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Top News&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Top News","link":"https:\/\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/index.php\/category\/top-news\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7977,"url":"https:\/\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/index.php\/deloitte-oil-and-gas-ma-outlook-shifting-strategies-reshaping-global-transactions-market-in-2020-and-beyond\/","url_meta":{"origin":4175,"position":1},"title":"Deloitte Oil and Gas M&#038;A Outlook: Shifting Strategies Reshaping Global Transactions Market in 2020 and Beyond","author":"","date":"February 13, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Key takeaways While total oil and gas deal count declined in 2019, total deal value held up thanks to several mega-deals, primarily in upstream and downstream. Majors and large independents are expected to drive deal making as they continue to optimize their portfolios and divest higher carbon projects. International oil\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Top News&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Top News","link":"https:\/\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/index.php\/category\/top-news\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Deloitte.jpg?fit=649%2C370&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Deloitte.jpg?fit=649%2C370&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Deloitte.jpg?fit=649%2C370&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":3254,"url":"https:\/\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/index.php\/kenya-oil-gas-strategic-analysis-outlook-2025\/","url_meta":{"origin":4175,"position":2},"title":"Kenya Oil and Gas Strategic Analysis and Outlook to 2025","author":"","date":"August 19, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"(Press Release) Amidst downfall in oil prices creating uncertainty on the future of Kenya industry growth, the report details key strategies of government, oil and gas companies and investors in the country. Detailed outlook of the industry in terms of production forecasts of oil, gas, LNG, LPG, gasoline, diesel, fuel\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"diesel\"","block_context":{"text":"diesel","link":"https:\/\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/index.php\/tag\/diesel\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/latest-exploration-map.png?fit=564%2C549&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/latest-exploration-map.png?fit=564%2C549&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/latest-exploration-map.png?fit=564%2C549&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5628,"url":"https:\/\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/index.php\/diversification-consolidation-and-ongoing-efficiency-measures-will-be-hallmarks-of-oil-and-gas-sector-in-2017\/","url_meta":{"origin":4175,"position":3},"title":"Diversification, consolidation and ongoing efficiency measures will be hallmarks of oil and gas sector in 2017","author":"","date":"January 26, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"New research by DNV GL, the technical advisor to the oil and gas industry, shows oil and gas companies seeking to rebalance business portfolios and reorganizing for a new era. 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This was a as result of companies maintaining the cautious optimism in the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Top News&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Top News","link":"https:\/\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/index.php\/category\/top-news\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8591,"url":"https:\/\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/index.php\/cloud-artificial-intelligence-ai-and-5g-are-already-reshaping-the-oil-and-gas-industry\/","url_meta":{"origin":4175,"position":5},"title":"Cloud, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and 5G are already reshaping the Oil and Gas Industry","author":"","date":"July 15, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Today, the Huawei Oil & Gas Virtual Summit 2020 \u2014 exploring 'Data to Barrel' \u2014 was successfully hosted online. The summit gathered together global customers, industry partners, and thought leaders \u2014 including representatives from the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), Schlumberger SIS, and the former Chief Information Officer (CIO)\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Countries&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Countries","link":"https:\/\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/index.php\/category\/countries\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/futuretech-diagram-oil-gas-5g-in-oil-and.png?fit=860%2C684&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/futuretech-diagram-oil-gas-5g-in-oil-and.png?fit=860%2C684&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/futuretech-diagram-oil-gas-5g-in-oil-and.png?fit=860%2C684&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/futuretech-diagram-oil-gas-5g-in-oil-and.png?fit=860%2C684&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4175","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/24"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4175"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4175\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4178,"href":"https:\/\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4175\/revisions\/4178"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4176"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4175"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4175"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.oilnewskenya.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4175"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}