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<\/p>\nGlobal demand for oil products has seen strong recovery this year, however, depressed kerosene demand from the aviation sector is a major barrier to full recovery, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.<\/p>\n
GlobalData\u2019s analysis of oil product flows suggests that when kerosene is excluded, oil product demand in Q3 2021 had fully recovered \u2014 compared to the same period in 2019. Demand for kerosene, which is mostly used for jet fuel, has hovered at around two thirds of pre-COVID-19 levels throughout this year. Therefore, when this is included in the analysis of product flows, total oil product demand is pulled 3% below pre-COVID levels for Q3.<\/p>\n
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Will Scargill, Managing Energy Analyst at GlobalData, commented:<\/strong>\u00a0\u201cChina has been the driver for the global demand recovery, led by gasoline in the transport sector and continued growth in naphtha and LPG as the country expands its petrochemicals sector. Other major economies are still yet to see demand fully recover to pre-COVID-19 levels, but the strength of China\u2019s growth plugs the gap. Still, the depressed aviation sector means a significant global demand shortfall, leaving open the prospect that we may have already seen peak oil demand \u2014 given the acceleration of energy transition to renewables.\u201d<\/p>\n Diesel and Kerosene are both yet to see demand fully recover. China has not provided the same boost for diesel as other products, as the country\u2019s use was already in decline pre-COVID-19 and global demand in Q3 2021 remained around 4% below 2019 levels.<\/p>\n Scargill continues:\u00a0<\/strong>\u201cChinese diesel demand appears to have peaked in 2015 amid moderating economic growth and a switch to cleaner fuels. Meanwhile, in developed economies road transport activity has not fully recovered and the important European market is increasingly turning away from Diesel vehicles due to air quality concerns.\u201d<\/p>\n Kerosene demand saw the greatest impact from COVID-19 due to restrictions on air travel. While the sector recovered, to an extent, in the second half of 2020, recovery has stalled this year amid waves of infections and restrictions \u2014 with new restrictions linked to the Omicron variant likely to hit demand again in Q4.<\/p>\n